STATISTICAL PREVIEW: Tamworth (A)

Introduction

Scunthorpe will be looking to end a three-game winless run in the National League, when they take on Tamworth on Tuesday evening.

The Iron were beaten 3-2 by Woking despite a spirited display in the second half of their match at the weekend.

They’re set to take on a Tamworth side who were beaten 2-1 at home to Barrow in their most recent National League game, which came on October 10th after their clash with Gateshead was postponed on Friday.

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Match Preview

Scunthorpe United were beaten 3-2 at home by Woking on October 24th. the Iron finished with 3.63 xG, a measure of how likely each shot was to be scored, against 1.78 for Woking.

Tamworth’s most recent league game was a 2-1 home defeat to Barrow on October 10th. Barrow scored twice early in the second half of that game, and Teo Kurtaran’s penalty on 89 minutes came too late to change the result. Tamworth still finished that game with 2.48 xG to Barrow’s 2.26.

Both sides therefore arrive off a one-goal defeat, and both created most of their chances after half-time.

Scunthorpe United Form Guide

Aiden Woking’s O’Brien scored on seven minutes, John Marquis converted a penalty on 25 and O’Brien added a third on 55, leaving the home side three behind despite having 55% of the ball. Woking had Rico Browne sent off on 61 minutes.

Scunthorpe United built up 2.63 of their expected goals after the break. Their PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) fell from 13.9 in the first half to 5.6 in the second, meaning a challenge or interception for roughly every six Woking passes.

Woking’s substitute goalkeeper Vicente Reyes saved a James Norwood penalty on 63 minutes, though Norwood scored in the same minute. Substitute Luke Brennan added a second on 84 minutes, but their efforts weren’t enough to take something from the game.

Kyle Hurst had four shots, three on target, and Tyler Denton set up four shots from left wing-back. Jean Belehouan made 23 recoveries, which was the most in the Scunthorpe United side on the day.

Tamworth Form Guide

Tamworth set up in a 4-2-3-1 against Barrow and moved to a 4-4-2 on 67 minutes. They had 40% of the ball and played 30% of their passes long, compared with 20% for Barrow. Almost all of their threat came in the second half, when they created 2.23 of their 2.48 xG.

Rekeem Harper’s penalty on 51 minutes and a goal from Corey Edwards ten minutes later put Barrow two up. Joe Rye had Tamworth’s biggest chance from open play, a shot on 47 minutes worth 0.69 expected goals that Benjamin Winterbottom saved.

It was one of eight saves the Barrow goalkeeper made, and Teo Kurtaran’s late penalty was the only shot that beat him.

Morgan Roberts put all four of his shots on target and won 24 of his 46 duels, the most of any Tamworth player. From left-back, Hayden Carson set up four shots for teammates.

Tamworth v Scunthorpe United Key Duels

The contest in the air looks like a big one. Tamworth’s direct approach against Barrow produced 95 aerial duels, and Joe Rye won 14 of his 19, including eight of ten against Barrow forward Alex Reid. Scunthorpe United won 31 of their 47 aerial duels against Woking, with James Norwood winning four of his five.

At the other end, Will Evans won four of his five aerial duels against Woking’s John Marquis, which will matter against a side that sends the ball forward early.

Tamworth’s left flank is the other area to watch. Hayden Carson won three of his 15 ground duels, and Barrow’s Arian Allen beat him in ten of their 12 meetings.

Scunthorpe United’s right side, where Joe Starbuck started at wing-back and Will Evans won three of his four offensive duels, will be up against that side of the Tamworth defence.

Conclusion

Scunthorpe have found it tough to build momentum this term in the National League, but they’ve got a good opportunity to pick up an all-important three points in midweek.

Tamworth have been inconsistent this season, and are just two places of The Iron in the fifth-tier standings, and a win for either side could go a long way in deciding which team kicks on with a run of positive results moving forward.

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