Statistical Preview: Boston United (A)

Introduction

Scunthorpe United will be looking to pick up an important three points this weekend, as they take on Boston United.

The Iron were beaten by Tamworth in midweek, which leaves them five points adrift of safety heading into this weekend’s match.

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Match Preview

Scunthorpe United go into Saturday’s game against Boston United after a 4-1 defeat at Tamworth on 27th October.

Scunthorpe United had 62% of the ball but were three goals down by the 43rd minute. Alfie Beestin scored in first-half stoppage time to make it 3-1, but Tamworth added a fourth in the third minute of added time at the end of the match.

Boston United go into the game after beating Gateshead 2-1 on the same night. They fell behind to a Jordy Hiwula goal in the 36th minute and created very little before half-time. Substitute Tom Cursons then scored twice, on 79 minutes and in the fifth minute of stoppage time, to win it.

Scunthorpe United Form Guide

Scunthorpe United fell behind early at Tamworth. Morgan Roberts scored after four minutes, and Kieren Donnelly headed in on 14, and both goals came from crosses.

Tamworth’s chances added up to 2.65 expected goals (xG). Their post-shot xG, which also takes account of where each shot was placed, was 3.31.

Scunthorpe United changed things at half-time. Declan Howe, Luke Brennan and Patrick Jones came on, and the team switched from a 3-5-2 to a 4-4-2. They had 63% of the ball after the break, but six of their 11 shots in the match came from outside the penalty area.

At the back, Jean Belehouan won 12 of his 17 duels, including six of eight in the air.

Boston United Form Guide

Boston United’s two halves against Gateshead looked very different. Their chances before the break added up to just 0.06 xG, and they went in a goal behind. In the second half they produced 2.25 xG.

They also pressed harder after the break. Their PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) fell from 9.8 in the first half to 5.1 in the second, meaning they made a tackle or interception roughly every five Gateshead passes.

The substitutes made the difference in the win against Gateshead. Tom Cursons came on at 68 minutes, had two shots and scored with both, the second after a corner. Georgie Gent, who replaced Lewis Shipley at half-time, took eight corners and set up three shots.

Oliver Bostock was busy down the left, completing eight of his ten dribbles and winning all ten of his ground duels against Thomas Lavery.

Boston United v Scunthorpe United Key Duels

The battle in the air could decide this game. Scunthorpe United put in 21 crosses at Tamworth, but only four reached a teammate.

Against Gateshead, Boston United’s defenders won most of their headers: Jamie Grimes won eight of his nine aerial duels, Niall Canavan seven of nine and Sachdev 10 of 12.

At the other end, Scunthorpe United conceded twice from crosses on Tuesday, and Boston United put in 23 crosses against Gateshead, 11 of them from Georgie Gent. Boston United won 42 of their 66 aerial duels in that game.

For Scunthorpe United, Jean Belehouan won six of his eight aerial duels and Will Evans won four of six, so both will have plenty to deal with if the ball goes into the box often.

Further forward, James Norwood set up three shots at Tamworth. He will need to get on the ball in dangerous areas if Scunthorpe United are to make their possession count.

Conclusion

Scunthorpe United had more of the ball at Tamworth but were undone by early goals from crosses. Boston United came from behind against Gateshead after a much stronger second half.

For Scunthorpe United, the priorities are dealing with balls into their own box and turning possession into better chances. Their opponents scored late twice on Tuesday through Cursons, so Scunthorpe United will need to keep their concentration throughout the match on Saturday evening.

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