STATISTICAL PREVIEW: Worthing (H)

Introduction

Scunthorpe United are looking to get back to winning ways when they host Worthing, who will also be looking for a response after losing 3-0 last time out in the league to Sutton. 

Scunthorpe can take plenty from their last game against Boston, especially from their second-half performance. 

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Match Preview

Scunthorpe United go into Saturday’s meeting with Worthing after a 2-1 defeat to Boston United in their most recent National League fixture on 31 October. Tom Cursons scored twice in the first half for Boston United, the first of them a penalty, before James Norwood pulled one back in the 53rd minute.

Scunthorpe United had 59% of the ball that afternoon, but Boston United created the better chances. Their expected goals total, which estimates how likely each shot was to be scored, came to 1.72 against 0.84.

Worthing were also beaten in their last league game on the same day, losing 3-0 to Sutton United. An own goal from Jayden Moore, a finish from Temi Babalola and a Charlie Carter penalty all came between the 21st and 33rd minutes. Worthing had 73% possession and 11 shots, but only one of those attempts hit the target.

Scunthorpe United Form Guide

The second half against Boston United gave Scunthorpe United more to build on than the first. Both sides produced 0.46 expected goals after the break, and the pressing went up a level. PPDA, which counts how many passes the opposition are allowed before a defensive action, fell from 10.3 in the first half to 5.5 in the second, so Boston United were being challenged every five or six passes.

Norwood’s goal came from a chance worth 0.35 expected goals, but his finish carried a post-shot expected goals figure of 0.63, a measure that also takes into account where the shot was placed. 

At the back, Will Evans won 13 of his 15 aerial duels, and the team won 42 of 62 in the air overall. Jean Belehouan completed 58 of his 60 passes, and the full Scunthorpe United passing breakdown shows how much of the build-up went through him.

Worthing Form Guide

Worthing had plenty of the ball against Sutton United, completing 530 of their 626 passes. Joe Cook was at the centre of that, finding a teammate with 107 of his 122 passes. Turning it into shots that tested the goalkeeper proved harder, as nine of their 11 attempts came from outside the penalty area and none of those were on target.

Their chances did improve after the interval, with expected goals rising from 0.23 in the first half to 0.56 in the second. Isichei and Coleman each finished on 0.27, Coleman’s total coming from three shots.

Cory Adjetey-Brew was Worthing’s most direct outlet from left-back. He completed four of his five dribbles, got one of his two shots on target and created Isichei’s chance with a key pass. Worthing also pressed high, finishing with a PPDA of 7.0 over the match.

Scunthorpe United v Worthing Key Duels

Worthing’s left flank is the area to watch. Of their 41 attacks against Sutton United, 14 went down that side, and those moves accounted for 65% of the team’s expected goals. 

Cory Adjetey-Brew and Dominic Johnson-Fisher operate there, which puts them up against Joe Starbuck and Patrick Jones on the Scunthorpe United right.

Joe Starbuck won 11 of his 23 duels against Boston United and lost the ball 26 times, the most of any Scunthorpe United player, while Jones won 12 of his 29 duels and completed four of his five dribbles. Dominic Johnson-Fisher won eight of his 27 duels and lost possession 18 times against Sutton United.

The other battle is in the air. Will Evans won all seven of his aerial duels against Tom Cursons, while Worthing won 14 of their 28 aerial contests last time out. You can compare every player’s duel record before kick-off.

Conclusion

Both sides arrive on the back of league defeats, and both like to keep the ball; the key is who can turn their possession into chances. 

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